Big Men On Campus
UNC's New and Improved Big Man Room
The North Carolina Tar Heels might be a little more relevant this year with their new additions. 5-star PF Caleb Wilson and 7’0” Big-man Henri Veesaar have the potential to be two NBA players. In this article, I just wanted to give some of my thoughts on their NBA outlook and possible production this season.
Henri Veesaar is a 21-year-old big-time transfer from Arizona. Hubert Davis needs him to have a monster season to be competitive nationally, and I like his chances of doing so. Veesaar is thankfully in one of the weaker Power Five conferences. He also won’t be short of touches, as his team will desperately need him given their lack of high-end perimeter firepower. Veesaar is essentially a rim runner with touch, excellent fluidity, and movement skills. His leaping ability is plus-level for a big man, and he’s a reliable threat on the offensive glass. He has timing, spatial awareness, and just understands how to be useful on offense. The 7-footer can punish switches and can also run past like-sized guys. He also has some craft and wit to his game, and he makes bigs pay for even the tiniest mistakes. Mistimed reaches, poor level discipline, or any lack of effort are punished. He’s obviously capable in pretty much any facet off-ball. Henri has the skill and IQ to cut, post, roll, and make the right connective read. He has hooks out of the post, highlight dunks on rolls and lobs, and can hurt from outside with his 3-point shot. His touch on non-rim shots is also impressive. Another trait that keeps me optimistic is his ability to draw fouls. He can bait fouls, take fouls, and convert on them with the solid free-throw shooting. Taking a slight step down in conference strength while taking a subtle leap in usage might be a nice recipe for the Heels. Veesaar will do all the typical rim-runner things at a high level, while also providing some solid shooting, connectivity, and really good touch away from the rim.
There is some easy push back for his offense struggling a little this year, though. His perimeter help is young and not particularly strong in high-end talent. On Henri’s end, offensively, he has been chiefly a play-finisher. He does not possess a plus-level handle or great passing. There are excuses for this, but even with a leap in passing, it won’t be quite extraordinary yet, and he’ll be 22 on Draft Day. He has shown the ability to drive, but it’s just flashes, so the self-creation overall could be a concern. His slender frame is also an eyebrow raiser, as he doesn’t have great length to mitigate this (7’2” WS).
Veesaar’s defense is even more exciting. A skillful defensive weapon, he hasn’t really shown many flaws on defense. He’s shown the ability to blow up plays in drop, hedges, and switches while also being a solid rebounder. The UNC defense will be in pretty good hands as Henri is a great rim protector. His technique and discipline as a shot blocker are tremendous, and he’s also shown the potential to be a real threat at getting steals in drop. His movement skills, size, and feel make it extremely tough for teams to operate comfortably. Switches are not easy, and he also makes the pick-and-roll game tricky for opposing guards. He’s able to get vertical with anybody, slide his feet, and has little stunts and delays that make his drop coverage effective. I can see why it helped Arizona’s defense so much, and it should still be good enough for the ACC even with a larger workload.
Now, the All-American forward Caleb Wilson is lottery range on most preseason boards and for good reason. A 6’10” forward, Wilson has flashed 3-level scoring, and his finishing skill is among some of the best in the class. He’s able to dunk on you, hit a touch shot, and has flashed an arsenal of crafty moves driving. Nothing short of an outstanding athlete, his combination of balance, quickness, and bounce might get him the “great NBA athlete” tag. His driving is very impressive, as Caleb is a scary player when attacking downhill. Bigs have trouble with his shift and quickness, while smaller players just don’t stand a chance once he picks the ball up, slashing. He has bumps, euro steps, hop steps, spins, crossovers, and has even flashed double moves with his gifted handle for a 6’10” kid. He brings even more impact on the glass, using his movement skills, motor, and feel. The passing feel is a plus, too, as he can easily be relied upon to shoulder tertiary playmaking responsibilities. Wilson has shown the ability to connect on the move or operate on the ball as a hub in DHOs and Post-ups. His passes are accurate, timely, and he clearly understands spacing. The transition kick-ups and cross-court skips make it clear he’s a great playmaker. His handle, size, and age might make him a viable secondary option down the line if he can turn the paint scoring from great to elite.
The touch and shooting in general do deserve skepticism, though. His mechanics aren’t bad on his shot, and he has shown he’s capable of hitting 3 pointers and pull-up jumpers. That being said, it’s just not consistent enough for him to hang his hat on right now. The touch on free throws would have to improve while keeping his recent HS 3-point efficiency slightly. He can also just flat-out improve significantly from the line, and the 3-pointer would get more grace regardless of how bad it might get throughout the season. The length and frame are valid questions too (reported 215 lbs, 7’0 WS). Thin without great length definitely can draw some fair skeptics if he’s not able to leverage his athleticism enough.
The defense for Caleb is what really gets you excited, though. No flaws on defense, really, other than the obvious frame and lack of elite length. He doesn’t have any issue guarding the perimeter, then roaming the paint, then helping in gaps on drives. His plus-level bounce and great instincts make him an easy weapon to utilize. He’s shown he’s adept at drop coverage, can hard hedge/switch, and operate in these coverages within a single possession. His motor stays hot, and he is great on the boards with his athleticism and technique. I can see a world where Caleb and Henri form one of the more imposing defensive frontcourts in the country, and definitely in the ACC.
Production:
An elite Oreb% and stk% (Hakeem) with great play finishing gives him such a great foundation as a big. You would like the TO% to be lower for a guy with low playmaking volume. His usage wasn’t high, though, so hopefully the playmaking volume takes a reasonable leap without too much of a TO jump. The playtypes also raise an eyebrow, as he’s in the 15th percentile in % of points on Fast Break. He’s also at the 28th percentile in Fast Break Points per 40. There just isn’t much of an excuse for a guy playing on a team 86th % percentile in Pace with him on the floor. The FTr and touch should give him a somewhat of a pass as he’s still plenty useful in the half-court. The fluidity also suggests this might not be too big an issue, as he doesn’t look slow or out of shape on film (if you trust my eye, that is, haha). The 66 true shooting and 67 2pt% are obviously impressive, even if they’re heavily assisted. His ability to stretch the floor, finish with touch or above the rim, and ability to add possessions on the glass make him incredibly impactful.
75% at the rim with a nice 47% on touch shots in the paint makes me confident it’ll translate well this season. The near 70 FT while hitting over 30% of his threes is an indicator of good, not great touch for a 7-footer. I don’t see a usage increase making this much worse, but it’s definitely something to monitor, as the shooting production could go south. Those numbers just aren’t high enough to feel extremely confident in a leap, though he is young-ish (21).
On/offs are mostly fun tertiary indicators, rather than reliable scouting tools for college. His are pretty darn good, though: 81st percentile in ORTG diff and 94th percentile on defense. The opponent’s on/off are on in the second screenshot, and they look good too. Henri sported a near-3.0 % true shooting differential. and -6.2 points per 40. These numbers aren’t law obviously, but they make you feel even better about his defense being truly impactful.
In this Bart screenshot, I used Henri to make an NBA Draft filter. He slotted in right under Bassey in this (8.3 BPM) and clearly has potential to get at least drafted. This will be a big season as he can climb up into Kalkbrenner and Boucher territory. A realistic leap in scoring, playmaking volume, and defensive rebounding should help solidify Henri’s case. Getting to even a Bassey level of production should warrant a multi-year career (though Veesaar has more feel but is older).
This screenshot is a filter using Cerebro’s metrics (C-RAM, DSI, 3PE)
Funny enough, he had an 8.4 C-RAM (Cerebro all-in-one metric). He was one of 44 6’8 or taller players in 2025 with an 80 DSI (Cerebro defensive metric) and at least 50 3PE (3 Point Efficiency). The list drops to less than 15 players when you do at least 6’11.
Caleb Wilson’s Production
Now Wilson’s HS production is great, and he has some very translatable skills in his profile. His defense, playmaking, finishing, and rebounding are all great, and he had the production to back it up. In Caleb’s 31-game HS sample, he averaged nearly six stocks a game (somehow averaged less than 2 fouls/game, even I’m skeptical of that stat’s validity). He also averaged over 2.0 offensive rebounds (11.1 total rebounds). Wilson’s playmaking was impressive too, averaging 5 assists/game on an over 1.0 AST/TO ratio. He was a monster in the paint, averaging 64% from 2-point range. Wilson showed some shooting upside, hitting 34% of his 3s on over 100 attempts.
The problems arise with the overall shooting, though. A 25 3-point rate and 60% from the FT line over 140 attempts is not encouraging for the touch long-term. His 31 FTr is also solid at the very best. That number needs to be much higher, given his shooting woes and paint prowess.
In his 2024 EYBL run, he was top 50 in BPM (shoutout Nick Kali) and among the top of the league in defensive BPM. The defensive efficiency really stood out to me and made the foul aversion in HS much more believable, especially since it’s evident in his limited Cerebro sample as well.
Here is a screenshot of an NBA Draft Bart filter that I believe he could replicate with ease.
Some spooky names and downsides on here for sure, but there’s also some hope in there (Sharpe, Anderson, Barnes, Sorber, and maybe even Simmons haha?). I think the idea for Caleb Wilson’s success will be him being elite on defense as normal, while providing great paint efficiency and creation. He’ll also add high-end playmaking and rebounding. The frame and touch could hold him back considerably if UNC asks too much of him. With a reasonable workload, though, I don’t see why he can’t at least be in that Barnes/Anderson territory of production.
Thank you for sticking around, so I’ll bless you with a bonus THIRD UNC frontcourt prospect—6’11 junior Jarin Stevenson. Stevenson just turned 20 (Oct 15) and will be relied upon heavily by the Heels.
He’s solid. Didn’t have the greatest of years, but there are some green flags in there. The 3-point rate, free-throw rate, and offensive rebounding should translate decently. The 75th %ile block% with some of these positive on/off indicators might point to a pretty smooth defender as well.
This is opponent on/off splits, and as you can see, his -3.4 points per 40 and -1.5% TS diff are not bad at all for a guy without a ridiculous stock%. He should be able to be at least a reliable and versatile piece for Coach Davis, and far from a liability.
The volume at the rim and transition ability are worrisome, of course. A near 70% at the rim with his ability to stretch the floor should be useful enough this year. The stretch ability could be called into question too due to the low FT, but I think his 3-point efficiency and volume combat that to an extent, especially for a 6’11 19-year-old (19 during the season).